Proposed Improvement of Forecasting Using Time Series Forecasting of Fast Moving Consumer Goods

Tasya Regina, Panca Jodiawan


The company discussed in this paper is a national distributor firm that distributes FMCG products. The PPIC division in the company is responsible for forecasting the demand using the combination of the moving average method and intuition according to the interest of the company. However, the PPIC staff never measures the accuracy of their forecasting method. This research paper aims to evaluate the forecasting methods used to predict the demands of 12 classes of A SKU. Four-time series forecasting methods are particularly implemented, i.e., ARIMA, moving average (MA), double exponential smoothing (DES), and linear regression (RL). Forecasting using the ARIMA method is carried out by considering the stationarity of the average and variance of the historical data points. Forecasting using DES is carried out by using the optimal alpha and gamma values of the ARIMA method. The results show that the performance of each forecasting method varies, depending on which demands of class A SKU are predicted. Based on these results, the current forecasting method utilized by the company should be improved using the time series forecasting methods leading to the smallest error values for each class of A SKU.


FMCG; Moving average; Minitab; ARIMA; Double exponential smoothing; Linear regression

Full Text:



Anggraeni, D. T. (2019) “Forecasting Harga Saham Menggunakan Metode Simple Moving Average dan Web Scrapping,” Jurnal Ilmiah Matrik, 21(3), pp. 234–241.

Chopra, S. and Meindl, P. (2016) Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation. 6th ed. New York: Pearson Education.

Christian, M. et al. (2021) “Business Performance Determinants of Salted Fish Distribution in Kapuk During the COVID-19,” Journal of Distribution Science, 19(6), pp. 29–39. doi: 10.15722/jds.19.6.202106.29.

Hirschmann, R. (2020) Contribution to GDP by Industry Indonesia 2019, Statista.

Irawan, R. Y. and Laksito, W. (2019) “Penerapan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing Untuk Peramalan Tingkat Indeks Pembangunan Manusia,” Jurnal TIKomSiN, 7(2), pp. 18–28.

Kurniagara (2017) “Penerapan Metode Exponential Smoothing Dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Siswa Baru (Studi Kasus: SMK Pemuda Lubuk Pakam),” Jurnal Pelita Informatika, 6, pp. 19–25.

Maricar, M. A. (2019) “Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ,” Jurnal Sistem dan Informatika, 13(2), pp. 36–45.

Nurprihatin, F. et al. (2019) “A Distribution Strategy Using A Two-step Optimization to Maximize Blood Services Considering Stochastic Travel Times,” in IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. doi: 10.1088/1757-899X/650/1/012043.

Nurprihatin, Filscha et al. (2019) “The Extension Analysis of Natural Gas Network Location-Routing Design Through the Feasibility Study,” Journal of Applied Research on Industrial Engineering, 6(2), pp. 108–124. doi: 10.22105/jarie.2019.174164.1082.

Nurprihatin, F., Angely, M. and Tannady, H. (2019) “Total Productive Maintenance Policy to Increase Effectiveness and Maintenance Performance Using Overall Equipment Effectiveness,” Journal of Applied Research on Industrial Engineering, 6(3), pp. 184–199. doi: 10.22105/jarie.2019.199037.1104.

Nurprihatin, F., Jayadi, E. L. and Tannady, H. (2020) “Comparing Heuristic Methods’ Performance for Pure Flow Shop Scheduling Under Certain and Uncertain Demand,” Management and Production Engineering Review, 11(2), pp. 50–61. doi: 10.24425/mper.2020.133728.

Nurprihatin, F. and Lestari, A. (2020) “Waste Collection Vehicle Routing Problem Model with Multiple Trips, Time Windows, Split Delivery, Heterogeneous Fleet and Intermediate Facility,” Engineering Journal, 24(5). doi: 10.4186/ej.2020.24.5.55.

Tannady, H. et al. (2019) “Process Improvement to Reduce Waste in the Biggest Instant Noodle Manufacturing Company,” Journal of Applied Engineering Science, 17(2), pp. 203–212. doi: 10.5937/jaes17-18951.

Tannady, H., Nurprihatin, F. and Hartono, H. (2018) “Service Quality Analysis of Two of the Largest Retail Chains with Minimart Concept in Indonesia,” Business: Theory and Practice, 19, pp. 177–185. doi: 10.3846/BTP.2018.18.



  • There are currently no refbacks.